Certainly, some risk remains that downward momentum will emerge. Personally, I worry about the plight of big population states like Florida and California, where the housing correction is having its severest impact. I note the reports issued by express shippers and ground transportation firms that show deceleration in year-over-year trends in pre-holiday traffic across the nation. I realize that Wal-Mart Short Swing Trading and other large retailers have seen a slowing in same-store sales growth, that shopping mall traffic is down, and that the restaurant businessa not-insignificant part of the service sector that employs 14 million Americansis showing signs of strain as customers migrate from casual dining to more affordable fast-food providers. And, if you parse the data for the third quarter, you will see a pretty stout guesstimate of inventory accumulation. These are prototypical signs of an economy in stress.

Yet, before each FOMC meeting, I consult 35 CEOs from a broad range of businesses, and with the exception of homebuilders, not a single one of them feels the economy is at risk of falling off the table. Big builders and engineering firms report a booming domestic infrastructure business, especially in the petrochemical sector from Turn $200 into $4630 in 30 Days the Gulf Coast up through the lower Midwest. The tech folks continue to find demand briskas manifest in earnings reports of Microsoft, Apple and others.

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